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Low in place?
We got our fifth wave down, then RSI turned up and we got a MACD buy signal on the 10-min bar: Source: prophet.net - I’m now fully hedged to defend my long-term options against a bounce.
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Ending diagonal
This is the last 5 days of the S&P 500: Source: Prophet.net From Elliottwave.com: Ending Diagonal An ending diagonal is a special type of wave that occurs primarily in the fifth wave position at...
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Weekend charts
When the short-term gets hazy, remember the big picture. The drop so far (about 6% in 12 days on a closing basis, 9% in 13 days intraday): Source: Prophet.net Here are the conditions I am watching: RSI...
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Some crystal clarity on the waves
Someone asked for clarification on where I think we are in the wave structure, so naturally I broke out my kiddie drawing program: . Seriously, it’s hard to get precise about labeling waves at anything...
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After all that worrying, is that all the bounce we get?
This might have been as simple as an A-B-C countertrend rise to the 50% retracement of the Wed-Fri decline: Prophet.net - For an across the board deflation-style sell-off that started with such...
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5-wave impulsive decline in SPX
Prophet.net Likely at least a bit more downside here, maybe even a trend lower all day to 1085. Adjust those stops though! This move now qualifies as complete, so we could snap up at any time.
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Smackdown
This would be a pretty good way for a 3rd wave decline to start: Prophet.net See how the 30-min RSI called both the ramp off Monday’s low and the turn down yesterday? We’ve got a nice channel line...
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Ramp update
Taking a breather at the 61.8% retracement level. A ramp like this can reverse fast, especially if it’s wave 2 of a 3rd wave down. Prophet.net
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Prechter in the morning (King World News interview)
Eric King is one of the best financial interviewers out there, so he gets the best guests of anyone I know. Listen to the MP3 here, recorded last Saturday, March 20. Take-aways: The last of the bears...
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ES update (edited for clarity): stock futures still strong, but watch RSI for...
We don’t really have waning strength yet on the hourly scale in SPX futures, but I can see the possibility. If this current rally leg (from Friday afternoon’s low around 1083) fails to break 1107...
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Chart: Secular Bear Markets Since 1900
Secular Bear Markets (red) since 1900. Source: Crestmont Research I like this chart, but I would change one thing: the bear that started in 1929 could extend clear through to 1948 due to inflation and...
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Hedge funds: Just say no
Hedge funds are almost never a good investment. As a class, they underperform and overcharge. Only 20% of funds beat their benchmarks in a given year, and of those, fewer than half outperform in two of...
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Bristlecone Pine trading
Hedge funds, mutual funds and active mangers underperform and overcharge, while a simple buy-and-hold strategy regularly sustains sharp losses and lengthy secular bear markets. So what’s an investor...
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Barrons Big Money Poll shows complacency & love for equities
It amazes me that the most successful managers could be so bullish at a time like this (way overvalued, way overbought, rising Treasury yields, stalled earnings growth), but of course stocks are most...
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What goes up must come down (coffee futures boom-to-bust).
A 9-month mania has become a relentless 2-year bear market, and prices are back where they started: From Futures.Tradingcharts.com From Indexmundi.com, here’s a longer-term view. As is typical of...
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Top developing
An overbought market that has kept the vast majority of investors and traders in the bull camp for several weeks is to be viewed with suspicion. When prices also begin to lose their upward momentum,...
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RSI declining – final warning sign
This is a very expensive and overbought market which few participants believe can decline meaningfully. That alone is dangerous, but now we see signs of technical exhaustion, such as the downtrend in...
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Daylight saving is pointless
Daylight Saving Time doesn’t save energy. It just messes up the seasonal progression of diurnal rhythms, effectively giving us jetlag. The sun was rising a few minutes earlier each week, and now...
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One more datapoint on the equity bubble
The latest Flow of Funds Report (link to pdf) shows that equities comprise a greater share of US household assets than at any point besides the height of the internet bubble. Of course, elevated prices...
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On Flash Boys, why HFT is parasitic, and why it’s over.
It’s my baseline assumption when looking at markets, financial or otherwise, that when something involves no fraud or physical coercion it’s beneficial or innocuous. When you find something damaging...
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